Quits Rate

The August jobs report sounded better. The July JOLTS data did not. Together, they describe a market that is stable for employers and still frozen for workers — fall optimism that is real for one side and mostly theoretical for the other.

The August jobs report sounded better. The July JOLTS data did not. Together, they describe a market that is stable for employers and still frozen for workers — fall optimism that is real for one side and mostly theoretical for the other.

July JOLTS kept the labor market in low-hire, low-fire mode. The number to ignore is the headline; the signal to watch on Friday is whether job growth broadens beyond the same narrow pockets.

July JOLTS kept the labor market in low-hire, low-fire mode. The number to ignore is the headline; the signal to watch on Friday is whether job growth broadens beyond the same narrow pockets.

Openings held steady, but quits and hires didn’t move—the gap between those signals is where Q3 mobility lives.

Openings held steady, but quits and hires didn’t move—the gap between those signals is where Q3 mobility lives.

July’s data says Q3 will likely protect incumbents, not reopen mobility, while longer joblessness stays the market’s most ignored risk.

July’s data says Q3 will likely protect incumbents, not reopen mobility, while longer joblessness stays the market’s most ignored risk.